As part of the CAMS_22 project, 4sfera, together with TRACASA, supports the European Environment Agency (EEA) and ECMWF Copernicus by evaluating the quality and performance of CAMS air quality forecasts against unvalidated up-to-date (UTD) in-situ observations across Europe.
The challenge
The European Environment Agency (EEA), through the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), provides access to real-time air quality forecasts to inform policymakers, researchers, and the public. Ensuring the accuracy and reliability of these forecasts is critical for public health protection and environmental decision-making.
This evaluation addressed three key objectives:
- Compare CAMS datasets (raw, adjusted, and optimised) with UTD in-situ air quality observations for multiple pollutants (O3, NO2, PM10, PM2.5) across Europe.
- Assess forecast accuracy across different spatial scales (countries and regions) and temporal dimensions (hours of the day, days of the week).
- Provide clear, evidence-based insights to support the continuous improvement of CAMS air quality models.
The solution
The team conducted a comprehensive evaluation of CAMS air quality forecast data. The assessment compared CAMS raw, adjusted, and optimised forecasts with unvalidated up-to-date (UTD) in-situ observations for key pollutants (O3, NO2, PM10, PM2.5) across Europe.
The evaluation focused on:
- Analysing the accuracy and consistency of CAMS forecasts in relation to real-time observations.
- Delivering clear and actionable insights to the European Environment Agency (EEA) and ECMWF Copernicus to support the improvement of air quality forecasting services.
The result
- Delivery of a comprehensive evaluation report, offering insights into the performance of CAMS air quality forecasts versus UTD data.
- Detailed pollutant-specific assessments, highlighting the strengths and limitations of CAMS raw, adjusted, and optimised datasets for O3, NO2, PM10, and PM2.5.
- Development of visual tools and methodologies that assist air quality experts and forecasters in understanding CAMS performance, supporting future improvements in air quality modelling.
- Contribution to the ongoing enhancement of CAMS services, providing actionable feedback to EEA and ECMWF Copernicus on forecast accuracy.
By providing robust evaluation methods and clear insights into model performance, 4sfera reinforces the reliability of European air quality forecasting services, contributing to better-informed public health and environmental policies.